Balkan ‘Social Media Jihadis’ More Dangerous than Ex-Fighters

But experts say those who fight online are a greater danger.

Since the Islamic State lost its self-proclaimed caliphate late last year and its “caliph” in October, concern in the Balkans has focused on the prospect of hundreds of foreign fighters from the region returning home, battle-hardened and a threat to security.

Experts, however, say another group poses a greater danger: the thousands of ISIS sympathisers who never left.

ISIS may be on its knees in the Middle East, but support for its ideology is undiminished among radicalised ethnic Albanians in the Balkans, where social media support for ISIS propaganda and imams who spread its word remains “significant”.

These experts say authorities in Kosovo, Albania and North Macedonia need to put in place deradicalisation programmes targeting not just returning foreign fighters but the “social media jihadis” who share their ideological beliefs but who never took up arms.

Such programmes are costly, and will require outside help, they warn.

“Foreign fighters are only the most visible manifestation of a larger problem with terrorism in the Balkans,” said Washington-based foreign policy and security researcher and consultant Ardian Shtuni.

“The problem includes a robust contingent of highly committed ‘social media jihadis’ who despite not having been in Syria and Iraq, actively support and disseminate the ideology of ISIS and al Qa’ida, incite terrorist violence, radicalise, recruit, and even plot terrorist attacks online,” Shtuni told BIRN.

During last week’s Western Balkans Resilience Forum, organised by the International Republican Institute, IRI, in Sofia, BIRN spoke with the interior ministers of Kosovo, Albania and North Macedonia about the number of their nationals still in ISIS camps, and the deadlines for their return.

Kosovo Interior Minister Ekrem Mustafa said: “We have difficulties in identifying the remaining Kosovo citizens there because, after the loss of territory that ISIS held, people were scattered in different directions, so calculations are difficult. However, I can say that we have an interest in returning them all, children, women, men, and treating them based on their contribution to the conflict zone.”

“To our knowledge, in Syrian camps, we have 12 women and six children as well as men in the conflict zones. However, since June 2016 we haven’t had a single case of people leaving the country to join extremists in the conflict zones,” Oliver Spasovski, the North Macedonian Interior Minister, said.

“We have children born in the conflict zone, so I cannot say the exact number of people currently there. We have also a problem with identification and proving their past roles in the conflict zones. Our priority is the return of children and we are making every effort in this direction, though I don’t have a deadline,” Romina Kuko, his Albanian counterpart, said.

Repatriated foreign fighters are already known to authorities, said Skender Perteshi, a researcher at the Kosovo Centre for Security Studies, KCSS.

“Islamic State sympathisers or home-grown terrorists are going to pose more of an imminent threat to national security than the returned foreign fighters, who are already identified by the authorities and whose activities are frequently monitored,” Perteshi told BIRN.

Plot against Israeli football team thwarted
In November 2016, as a result of a coordinated counterterrorist operation between Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia, 23 people were arrested in the three countries on terrorism charges.

They were accused of an ISIS-inspired bomb plot targeting the Israeli national football team during a World Cup qualifying match in Shkoder, northern Albania.

Significant ‘propaganda footprint’
Shtuni’s own research suggest pro-ISIS propaganda networks continue to actively target Albanian-speaking audiences online, particularly through social media platforms and encrypted messaging applications.

In a study of online terrorist propaganda conducted in the first three months of this year, Shtuni identified 27 active Albanian-language Telegram channels or pages operated by militants and/or fighters of the Islamic State, al Qa’ida affiliate Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or generic jihadi supporters and 6,352 subscribers or accounts that followed one of more of them.

“The size of the terrorist propaganda footprint identified by this assessment is significant, considering that it focused only on one social messaging platform,” he said.

On Facebook, which is considered less secure, ISIS sympathisers often limit themselves to posting quotes from the sermons of two radical imams in North Macedonia and Kosovo and a self-proclaimed imam in Albania – Rexhep Memishi, Zekirija Qazimi and Genci Balla – all of whom are serving prison sentences for recruiting fighters for ISIS.

But on November 20, special prosecutors in Kosovo filed terrorism charges against returned foreign fighter Fitim Lladrovci over a Facebook post in which he praised coordinated suicide bombings in Sri Lanka in April in which 259 people died.

Bedri Elezi, the director for security studies at the Kosovo Institute for International Studies who has helped repatriate families of Albanian ISIS fighters, said the arrest of Lladrovci sent the message that such social media activity would not be tolerated.

“This message made the ISIS supporters very careful about what they post online,” he said.

Meagre resources
Based on media reports, NGO information and sources on the ground, BIRN estimates that from 2012 and 2014, some 660 Albanians from Kosovo, North Macedonia and Albania joined militant groups in Syria and Iraq.

Kosovo is among only a few countries that has sought to facilitate the organised return of foreign fighters and is trying to reintegrate women and children of fighters. But experts question the level of effort put into deradicalisation, especially concerning those who never left.

To date, Kosovo has around 240 returnees from Syria and Iraq, of which at least 135 are men.

According to Shtuni, Kosovo has over 100 returnees per one million nationals, while the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, by comparison, have between four and six returnees per million. Kosovo, however, has far fewer resources to deal with them.

“This disparity between the size of the challenge represented by returning foreign fighters and the means to effectively address it is bound to create a sizable and persistent security risk in the Western Balkans with further-reaching implications,” he warned.

Shtuni said countries like Kosovo would need better regional counter-terrorism cooperation and the support of European Union security mechanisms.

And any programme for returnees must address radicalised ISIS supporters fighting via social media too.

“In Kosovo, areas like Viti, Kacanik, Prizren, Malisheve, Mitrovice and Prishtina have a substantial community that is impacted by ISIS ideology,” said Elezi.

Perteshi said that Kosovo appeared to be ahead of North Macedonia in terms of deradicalisation, but would need to do more.

“This is a long process and needs a lot of financial efforts and expertise for better implementation of projects related to the integration and rehabilitation projects,” he said.

Foreign fighters in numbers: Calculated by BIRN (based on police reports, NGOs and sources in the field)

Kosovo

Around 400 left the country

Around 70 died (majority men)

Around 240 returned

Around 110 in the conflict zones (mainly men in prisons)

Albania

Around 110 left the country

Around 20 have died

Around 30 returned (2013-2014)

Around 80 people are believed to be in Syria

North Macedonia

Around 150 Macedonians left the country

Around 35 have died

Around 85 returned (2013-2014)

Around 40 are believed to be in Syria

Around 230 people from the Balkans are still in the conflict zone, of whom around 100 are believed to be men.