Hague Tribunal Faces a Dramatic 2015

The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, ICTY, will hand down two first-instance verdicts in 2015, in the cases against Bosnian Serb leader Karadzic and Croatian Serb leader Hadzic, plus four appeals verdicts, as the UN-backed court faces one of its busiest years since it was established.

Former Bosnian Serb Army officials Zdravko Tolimir and Vujadin Popovic, Ljubisa Beara, Drago Nikolic, Radivoje Miletic and Vinko Pandurevic are appealing against jail sentences for crimes in Srebrenica, former Bosnian Serb officials Mico Stanisic and Stojan Zupljanin against sentences for murders in the Krajina region, while a appeal also will rule on the acquittal of former Serbian security officials Jovica Stanisic and Franko Simatovic for crimes in Croatia and Bosnia.

Chief ICTY prosecutor Serge Brammertz told BIRN that many people in the former Yugoslavia, and particularly victims and the families of those who died during the 1990s conflicts, are watching keenly to see that justice is done.

“All war crimes prosecutors, whether in The Hague or in the region, face the same challenge in 2015: to continue to strive to meet the public’s strong desire for justice and accountability. Many victims, from every community, are still waiting for justice and still waiting to learn what happened to their loved ones,” Brammertz said.

Balkans expert Eric Gordy told BIRN that he does not expect any major surprises in the upcoming verdicts, and the most interesting things will be whether Karadzic is found guilty of genocide in seven Bosnian municipalities in 1992 as well as in Srebrenica in 1995, and whether Stanisic and Simatovic will be convicted after being initially acquitted of aiding and abetting wartime crimes in Croatia and Bosnia.

But whatever happens, there will be public controversy, Gordy believes.

“Part of the reason for this is not the fault of the Tribunal, but derives instead from the tendency of media and politicians in the region to take an ethnic cheerleading approach to evidence and verdicts,” he said.

Verdicts all year round
The first verdict of the year will be handed down on January 30, when the appeals chamber will decide whether former high-ranking Bosnian Serb Army officials Popovic, Beara, Nikolic, Miletic and Pandurevic are guilty of crimes related to the massacre of over 7,000 Bosniak men and boys from Srebrenica in July 1995.

In June 2010, Popovic and Beara were sentenced to life in prison for genocide, Nikolic to 35 years for assisting genocide and Miletic and Pandurevic to 19 and 13 years respectively for aiding the murders and the expulsion of civilians.

In March, another high-profile Srebrenica-related appeals verdict is scheduled, this time for Zdravko Tolimir, former deputy commander of the Bosnian Serb Army’s Main Headquarters. Tolimir was sentenced in 2012 to life in prison for genocide.

The appeals chamber will hand down a final verdict in June in the case against former Serbian officials Stanisic and Simatovic. Both were acquitted in 2013 of aiding and abetting the persecution of non-Serbs from Bosnia and Croatia from 1991 to 1995.

Gordy believes that the Stanisic and Simatovic verdict will be interesting from the point of view of establishing the rule of law in international conflicts. He explained that the appeals chamber will have the opportunity to reassess whether the two Belgrade officials should be found guilty despite the fact that their aid to local Serb forces fighting in both countries was not “specifically directed” towards committing crimes.

“In the Stanisic and Simatovic case, the trial chamber applied the controversial new standard of ‘specific direction’, which has since been strongly contested at other tribunals and also before the ICTY itself. That make this case very sensitive for the future of international law, and major international powers will pay close attention to the appeal,” he said.

The Karadzic question
The most highly-anticipated verdict of the year, in the case against Karadzic for genocide in Srebrenica in 1995 and other municipalities in 1992, the persecution of Bosniaks and Croats throughout the country, terrorising the population of Sarajevo and taking UN peacekeepers hostage, is scheduled for October.

The biggest question, said Gordy, is whether the former leader of the Bosnian Serb entity Republika Srpska will be found guilty of genocide in 1992 in the municipalities of Bratunac, Foca, Kljuc, Prijedor, Sanski Most, Vlasenica and Zvornik. This charge was dismissed by judges in 2012 but reinstated the year afterwards, with the court saying that evidence produced by the prosecution “could indicate that Karadzic possessed genocidal intent”.

“A finding that genocide existed as a policy and as one of the war aims of RS [Republika Srpska] in the Karadzic case, where the most systematic evidence has been presented on the point, would profoundly alter the Tribunal’s record in producing an account of that conflict,” Gordy suggested.

“However, this kind of finding would be surprising, not because of the evidence that has been presented but because of the generally cautious and conservative approach of trial chambers, especially in the ICTY’s last period,” he said.

A month after Karadzic’s verdict, the appeals chamber is set to hand down the final verdict in the case of former Bosnian Serb officials Mico Stanisic and Stojan Zupljanin, who are charged with the murders and expulsions of Bosniaks and Croats from the Krajina region in northern Bosnia. Both men were initially sentenced to 22 years in prison.

Finally, in December, the first-instance verdict in the case against Croatian Serb leader Goran Hadzic will be delivered.

Playing politics with justice
Gordy believes that such a large number of verdicts is bound to present challenges for the outreach office of the Hague Tribunal as it seeks to present the outcomes as just to the general public in former Yugoslav countries, where ethnic divisions remain and biased media often react strongly against court decisions they see as offensive to ‘their’ communities.

“Little has been done to acquaint the publics in the region with the documentary record and the issues at stake. I am afraid that there is very little that can be hoped for here. There is not time to compensate for the undone work of 20 years, and successful outreach always depended on institutions in the region being involved in the effort, which they have not been,” he said.

The director of Al Jazeera Balkans, veteran journalist and editor Goran Milic, told BIRN that all the verdicts are bound to be “a regional media event”.

“However, a big problem is the comments on those judicial decisions, because whenever something happens, you have comments and harangues, and that makes the situation worse,” Milic said.

The ICTY is also set to decide this year how to proceed with the war crimes case against Serbian Radical Party leader Vojislav Seselj. His verdict was scheduled for October last year but was postponed after one of the judges in the trial was removed for alleged bias, and the new judge is expected to take until at least the end of June to familiarise himself with details of the case, causing yet another delay in the marathon trial.

Seselj meanwhile has the potential to create other problems for the ICTY. After being temporarily released for cancer treatment in November last year and arriving in Belgrade to a rapturous welcome from his admirers, the nationalist politician has declared that he will not return to The Hague voluntarily for his verdict, and has challenged the Serbian government to send him back by force.

The way in which the Seselj situation is ultimately resolved, as well as the crucial verdicts, will ensure that the Tribunal remains in the headlines throughout the year.