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A Russian pro-war Telegram channel called Ribar sent out a message to its million-strong readership this week stating that the Balkan region is “being pushed into escalation”, after the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday issued an order to detain Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik.
Dodik, Republika Srpska Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic and National Assembly president Nenad Stevandic are all suspected of committing the criminal offense of “attacking the constitutional order”. The prosecution wants them to be held for questioning.
“Republika Srpska is facing unprecedented pressure; it is, in fact, being pushed to form its own structures and declare independence,” the Ribar post said. The post was then copied and shared on other influential channels.
A number of other smaller Telegram channels also started to publish similar messages almost simultaneously, calling Bosnia and Herzegovina “a time bomb”, after they had been silent about events in the country for some time since the beginning of the last crisis caused by Dodik’s actions.
The fact that the pro-Russian Telegram channels went into action just as Dodik was accused of undermining of the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina was no coincidence, according to Sead Turcalo, the dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences at Sarajevo University.
“We know that this is a network that includes at least 23 influential channels with nearly half a million followers across the region. The main function of these channels is to create a separate media space where the narrative of Republika Srpska’s independence becomes normalised and accepted,” Turcalo said.
“This is not about a spontaneous awakening, but a carefully designed and coordinated propaganda operation aimed at preparing the ground for political moves like the ones we are witnessing in Republika Srpska,” he added.
Ribar’s stances almost always coincide with the Kremlin’s ideas and goals. Ribar has already been trying to make a greater impact in Republika Srpska through efforts to start a school of journalism.
The head of Ribar, Mikhail Zvinchuk, who has been put on a sanctions list by European Union states for supporting actions that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, has also visited Republika Srpska. Zvinchuk is connected to the authorities in Moscow, and experts claims that he acts as a megaphone for Kremlin ideas.
The Telegram channel also suggested that the recent increase in the number of soldiers from the European peacekeeping force EUFOR came amid “the most acute crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last 30 years”.
Other smaller but still significant channels, which hundreds of thousands of readers and about whose influence Detektor has previously reported, published similar material independently of Ribar.
The Telegram channel Balkanska Spletnica, which has 30,000 readers, reported that “you should not believe analysts who claim that nothing is happening”, so “you will not be surprised later”.
“The time bomb set by the Dayton Agreement of 1995 will explode sooner or later. And now it is just a matter of time,” a post on Balkanska Spletnica said.
Telegram is the perfect platform for spreading such messages, Turcalo explained, because it lacks strict content controls and the fact-checking mechanisms.
“What is particularly worrying is in fact the synchronisation of anti-constitutional activities with inflammatory messages about the disintegration of the state, which appear simultaneously on these channels. So, in real time, a perception is formed that the independence of Republika Srpska is not only possible but almost certain and the only solution,” he said.
“It is even more dangerous that this inflammatory rhetoric is directly connected to Moscow’s official policies, because some of the key actors on the Telegram channels are already well-known Russian propagandists, including people connected to Putin’s party or even former Russian officials like Sergey Baburin, who openly advocates the international recognition of Republika Srpska,” he added.
“This clearly tells us that the situation is not just an internal crisis, but part of a broader plan to destabilise the region. Russia has been using such media strategies for years, and always with the aim of not only undermining Euro-Atlantic integration but also destabilising the region in any way,” Turcalo warned.
On Thursday, Balkanska Spletnica shared an article from a group called Drustveni Udar (Social Strike), which also said the situation was heating up.
“The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the verge of uncontrolled escalation. Sarajevo is requesting the arrest of the Republika Srpska leadership; Banja Luka is announcing the adoption of a new constitution,” the article said.
“Sarajevo can request the assistance of EUFOR in carrying out the operation … using the adoption of a new constitution as a pretext. If that really happens, Bosnia and Herzegovina will find itself in the most serious military-political crisis since 1992,” the post continued, analysing the possibility that the State Investigation and Protection Agency SIPA is not prepared to detain Dodik.
Analyst and digital forensics expert Natasa Kilibarda said that Telegram almost functions in a parallel reality in terms of information, where people look for content that matches their views. As such, its role as a tool for shaping the public discourse in the Balkans is problematic, Kilibarda warned.
“The unimpeded spread of nationalist, pro-Russian and Eurosceptic narratives, often encouraged by information and disinformation campaigns, belongs right in that sphere. Various domestic and foreign actors connected to local ruling structures use Telegram for propaganda and mobilisation of support through anti-Western and pro-Russian messages,” she said.
On Wednesday, Serbski Vestnik, another Russian-language Telegram channel, also published an article stating that “the laws of Republika Srpska that are in force on the territory of the Serbian entity will be implemented by Serbs”.
“This means that Dodik can only be arrested by force, by sending police/special police units/the army, which will be met by special units of the Republika Srpska Interior Ministry, including anti-terrorist and well-trained units. The failed state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is falling apart before our eyes,” the post said.
Dejan Beric, one of the most famous Serb volunteers in the Russian Army, reposted these words to his 110,000 followers. His is the most visited pro-Russian Telegram channel in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro.
Certain Telegram channels use the hashtag ‘#RSexit’, a term referencing ‘Brexit’ that was first used by Dodik and appeared previously to spread disinformation and news about Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Using the hashtag, Serbski Vestnik claims that “according to Dayton, Republika Srpska can have its own army” and that, according to the proposed new constitution of Republika Srpska, this is now becoming possible. The comment was a reaction to the first of two special sessions held by the National Assembly of Republika Srpska on the adoption of a new constitution.
“Article 116 of states that Banja Luka will have its own army, and Article 115 states that Republika Srpska can declare military neutrality or enter into military alliances with other states. So, #RSexit is closer than it seems,” the post said.
Kilibarda said that, given the long history of ethnic tensions and political instability in the region, such messages easily find welcoming recipients, and owing to their private and decentralised nature, such channels become a forum for campaigns that use emotions, fear and insecurity to shape public opinion.
“Telegram channels are part of a networked ecosystem where individuals, either anonymously or under pseudonyms, amplify the same narratives in a very coordinated and almost synchronised manner, creating the effect of echo chambers where users constantly receive confirmation of their stances,” Kilibarda said.
Detektor and other independent media have identified other pro-Russian Telegram channels that have been focusing on the possible arrest of Milorad Dodik since Wednesday as prone to spreading disinformation. Among them are Istocni Front (Eastern Front), Bunt je stanje duha (Rebellion is a State of Mind), Istok Info (East Info) and others.